Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics
通过政府预算约束估算美国联邦债务的实际回报，与官方利息支付不同，并分解通胀、增长和不同期限债务名义回报对债务-GDP比率演变的贡献。
This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.