Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade
用内生增长模型研究国际贸易的动态效应,发现自由贸易下发展中国家技术进步和增长可能受损,而发达国家获益,但发展中国家消费者可能因国外技术进步获得更高跨期效用。
Using an endogenous growth model in which learning by doing, although bounded in each good, exhibits spillovers across goods, this paper investigates the dynamic effects of international trade. Examining an LDC and a DC, the latter distinguished by a higher initial level of knowledge, under autarky and free trade, I find that under free trade the LDC (DC) experiences rates of technical progress and GOP growth less than or equal (greater than or equal) to those enjoyed under autarky. Unless the LDC's population is several orders of magnitude greater than that of the DC and the initial technical gap between the two economies is not large, the LDC will be unable to catch up with its trading partner. Hence, in terms of technical progress and growth, the LDC experiences dynamic losses from trade, whilst the DC experiences dynamic gains. However, since technical progress abroad can improve welfare at home, LDC consumers may enjoy - higher intertemporal utility along the free trade path. In the case of DC consumers, as long as their economy is not overtaken by the LDC they will enjoy both more rapid technical progress and the traditional static gains from trade, and hence experience an unambiguous improvement in intertemporal welfare.