ESTIMATING DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MAMMOGRAPHY DECISIONS
将Hotz和Miller的条件选择概率方法扩展到个体可能存在双曲贴现时间偏好且对时间不一致性天真的情形，并用成年女性乳腺X光检查决策数据验证了现时偏向和天真行为对预防性医疗利用不足的影响。
We extend the semiparametric estimation method for dynamic discrete choice models using Hotz and Miller's ( Review of Economic Studies 60 (1993), 497–529) conditional choice probability approach to the setting where individuals may have hyperbolic discounting time preferences and may be naive about their time inconsistency. We illustrate the proposed identification and estimation method with an empirical application of adult women's decisions to undertake mammography to evaluate the importance of present bias and naivety in the underutilization of this preventive health care. Our results show evidence for both present bias and naivety.