当预期收益率随时间变化时的消费与投资组合决策

Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 1999
被引 10
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

为面临时变股权溢价的无限期投资者提供了最优消费与投资组合选择的近似解析解,发现跨期对冲动机显著增加股票需求,且最优策略需择时,否则会导致较大福利损失。

Abstract

This paper presents an approximate analytical solution to the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely lived investor with Epstein-Zin-Weil utility who faces a constant riskless interest rate and a time-varying equity premium. When the model is calibrated to U. S. stock market data, it implies that intertemporal hedging motives greatly increase, and may even double, the average demand for stocks by investors whose risk-aversion coefficients exceed one. The optimal portfolio policy also involves timing the stock market. Failure to time or to hedge can cause large welfare losses relative to the optimal policy.

最优消费与投资组合时变预期收益跨期对冲市场时机