Upstart Industrialization and Exports: Evidence from Japan, 1880–1910
利用日本1880-1910年按产品和贸易伙伴细分的出口新数据，发现出口增长中30%来自扩展边际，贸易成本和市场规模影响市场进入，且市场退出很少。
Between 1880 and 1910, Japanese exports increased in volume, changed composition, and shifted from leading industrialized countries toward poorer Asian neighbors. Using a new dataset disaggregated by product and trade partner for the universe of Japanese exports, we find extensive margins accounted for 30 percent of export growth, with trade costs and market size associated with successful market entry. There was also considerable persistence in maintaining market presence and exit was rare. These stylized facts provide insight into both the country’s economic development, as reflected in its exported products, as well as the demand conditions of its trade partners.