Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan
研究了日本农场退出率与家庭非农收入份额及非农工作性质的关系，构建了分层贝叶斯线性和泊松模型来预测各城镇和县的退出率。
Abstract Off‐farm employment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farm exit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. Examining this issue in the context of Japanese agriculture, we find that farm exits are related to off‐farm income as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off‐farm work. Two econometric models are developed: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform well in predicting exit rates across the towns and prefectures of Japan.