Trade diversion is reversed in the long run
研究在一个不对称的三国Melitz模型中，经济增长如何导致贸易转移在长期发生逆转：区域贸易协定短期内降低非成员国的增长率和出口收入份额，但长期反而提升。
We explore the role of economic growth as a cause of reverse trade diversion in an asymmetric three-country Melitz model. A regional trade agreement between countries 1 and 2 decreases country 3's growth rate and the revenue shares of varieties country 3 exports to countries 1 and 2 in the short run, but increases them in the long run, compared with the old balanced growth path. This is because faster short-run growth in countries 1 and 2 than country 3 starts to increase the members' market entry costs more than the nonmember, thereby making the latter relatively more competitive.