PRODUCTIVITY OR UNEXPECTED DEMAND SHOCKS: WHAT DETERMINES FIRMS' INVESTMENT AND EXIT DECISIONS?
研究了意外需求冲击和生产率对企业资本投资和退出决策的影响，发现生产率对投资决策更关键，而需求冲击对退出决策更显著。
Abstract We investigate the roles played by unexpected demand shocks, besides productivity, on firms' capital investment and exit decisions. We propose a practical approach to recover unexpected firm‐level demand shocks using inventory data. The recognition of demand shocks and inventory also improves the productivity estimation. The empirical results indicate that although productivity and demand shocks are both significant factors determining firm behavior, the former is more dominant for investment decision and the latter is more salient for firm exit. These findings confirm that unexpected demand shocks, besides persistent productivity, are important factors when analyzing capital investment and firm exit decisions.