Weather Shocks and Spatial Market Efficiency: Evidence from Mozambique
研究了莫桑比克干旱和洪水对玉米市场价格差异的影响，发现干旱缩小价差而洪水扩大价差，且洪水效应受市场距离和道路质量影响，对评估市场效率有参考价值。
The aim of this paper is to study the association between weather shocks (droughts and floods) and agricultural market performance in Mozambique. To do so, we employ a dyadic regression analysis on monthly maize prices, transport costs, and spatial identification of markets as well as droughts and flooded areas. Our estimates show that, while a drought reduces price differences between markets, price dispersion increases during flood periods, an effect that is mainly driven by increases in transport costs. Finally, floods are found to affect price differences more if markets are closer to each other and if the road infrastructure quality is poor. An important implication of our results is that markets show some degree of efficiency during supply shock periods in Mozambique. However, spatial market integration continues to be insufficient, probably due to high transfer costs.