金融危机后的缓慢复苏与货币政策

Slow Post-financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · 2019
被引 32
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

研究了金融危机后经济复苏缓慢且全要素生产率下滑的问题,构建模型分析货币政策如何应对,发现最优政策应强烈响应产出,稳定通胀会导致福利损失,而稳定名义GDP效果较好。

Abstract

Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and accompanied by slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted? We address this issue by developing a model with endogenous TFP growth in which an adverse financial shock can induce a slow recovery. In the model, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much larger than when TFP expands exogenously. Moreover, inflation stabilization results in a sizable welfare loss, while nominal GDP stabilization works well, albeit causing high interest rate volatility.

金融危机后缓慢复苏货币政策全要素生产率内生增长名义GDP稳定