Climate Change, Crop Selection and Agricultural Revenue in Ghana: A Structural Ricardian Analysis
利用结构性李嘉图模型分析加纳农民在气候变化下如何选择作物，发现极端气候将导致玉米净收入大幅下降，并转向耐热但价值较低的谷子，从而降低农业总产值。
Abstract We apply a Structural Ricardian Model ( SRM ) to farm‐level data from Ghana for seven principal food crops in order to model the factors which influence farmers' decisions about which food crops to grow and the revenue conditional on these choices. Our application of the SRM incorporates a flexible functional form to allow for the possibility that the effects of temperature and rainfall may not be linearly separable. We use this model as a basis for simulations of the effects of climate change. These simulations suggest that extreme climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the average net revenue per hectare from maize, which accounts for over half of current food production. Across a range of climate change scenarios, there is also substantial substitution of maize for heat‐tolerant millet, and a reduction in the cultivation of other crops. Under most of the climate change scenarios that we consider, these results imply a substantial reduction in the aggregate value of agricultural production, since millet is the lowest‐value crop.