The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects
研究页岩油繁荣如何改变油价冲击对美国经济的影响，发现油价冲击后产油州和制造业州的投资、收入、工业产出和就业增长，而此前无此效应。
Summary We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.