Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy
研究美联储降息刺激经济的能力，发现固定利率可提前还款抵押贷款的存在使得降息效果不仅取决于当前利率水平，还取决于利率的历史路径。基于家庭模型和贷款级数据，文章认为近期的利率路径将对未来的货币刺激产生显著阻力。
How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimuli.