The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies
提出生产率J曲线现象，指出通用目的技术（如AI）需要大量无形资产投资，导致早期生产率被低估、后期被高估，并利用美国数据调整后显示2017年底全要素生产率比官方数据高15.9%。
General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find that adjusting for intangibles related to computer hardware and software yields a TFP level that is 15.9 percent higher than official measures by the end of 2017.