The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets
研究发现,自联邦公开市场委员会投票结果纳入新闻稿后,一致投票时股市上涨,而异议(通常倾向更高利率)时股市下跌,且这一模式在2007-2008年金融危机前就已存在。
Abstract This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.