Fleeing a Lame Duck: Policy Uncertainty and Manufacturing Investment in US States
研究发现选举引发的政策不确定性会减少美国各州的制造业投资，且这种效应是因果性的，投资不会在选举后反弹，反而会转移到邻近州。
It is found that electorally induced policy uncertainty decreases manufacturing investment in US states. In a state with average partisan polarization, the elasticity of election-year investment to a specific measure of policy uncertainty is −0.027. When the incumbent governor is term limited, there is greater uncertainty over the outcome, providing an instrument to demonstrate this effect is causal, not simply coincidental. Moreover, manufacturing investment does not rebound following the election. Rather, own-state uncertainty is associated with a large and significant coincident rise in neighboring states’ investment. These findings suggest that policy uncertainty at the subnational level drives investment to alternate sites.