How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments
利用1772至1871年伦敦中央刑事法院的档案数据，通过两个自然实验发现，当惩罚严厉程度大幅降低时，陪审团更倾向于定罪，且影响因被告性别而异。
This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision making using archival data from London’s Old Bailey Criminal Court from 1772 to 1871. We exploit two natural experiments in English history, resulting in sharp decreases in punishment severity: the offense-specific abolition of capital punishment and the temporary halt of penal transportation during the American Revolution. Using difference-in-differences to study the former and a pre-post design for the latter, we find a large, significant, and permanent impact on jury behavior: juries are more likely to convict overall and across crime categories. Moreover, the effect size differs with defendants’ gender.