Are Negative Supply Shocks Expansionary at the Zero Lower Bound?
标准新凯恩斯模型预测零利率下限时负供给冲击是扩张性的，但本文以日本大地震和石油供给冲击为例，发现这些冲击实际上是收缩性的，并指出修正模型会推翻其他非常规政策预测。
The standard new Keynesian model predicts that economies behave differently at the zero lower bound: completely wasteful government spending or forward guidance is very stimulative, and capital destruction or oil supply shocks are expansionary. I provide empirical evidence on this prediction and find it wanting: The Great East Japan Earthquake and oil supply shocks are contractionary at the zero lower bound. Modifications of the model that are consistent with this evidence also overturn other unusual policy predictions, such as large fiscal multipliers. My results suggest that many of the usual rules of economics continue to hold at zero nominal interest rates.