The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet
利用自然实验和空间断点回归，发现临时性地方补贴对经济密度有持久影响，主要源于地方公共投资和税收基础的持续提升，但政策也导致经济活动显著迁移，净效果存疑。
Using a natural experiment, we show that temporary place-based subsidies generate persistent effects on economic density. The spatial regression discontinuity design controls for continuous local agglomeration externalities, so we attribute an important role to capital formation in explaining persistent spatial patterns of economic activity. This persistence is driven by higher local public investment levels, which local governments could maintain after the end of the program because of a persistently higher tax base. We also find evidence for significant local relocation of economic activity, which raises doubts that the net effect of the policy is positive. Finally, we show that transfers have capitalized in land rents such that pretreatment landowners have benefited from the program.