Fiscal Rules and Financial Systems: Complements or Substitutes?
研究发现财政规则能显著提升国家信用评级，但这一效应在金融体系更发达的经济体中会减弱，表明金融市场可替代财政规则降低违约风险。
Abstract We study the effect of fiscal rules on a country's credit rating and their interaction with financial development. We build a rich set of panel data, which includes a novel index for the strength of fiscal rules. We find a positive and significant effect of fiscal rules on sovereign ratings. We also find that this effect is attenuated in economies with a more developed domestic financial system. Therefore, financial markets act as a substitute for fiscal rules in lowering the default risk assessed by credit rating agencies. This substitution effect between fiscal rules and financial development is mostly triggered through the monitoring and enforcement dimension of fiscal rules.