Forecasting success in equity crowdfunding
分析了2012至2017年间Crowdcube和Seedrs两大平台上的2171个股权众筹活动，发现市场已成熟，并基于活动时可获取的信息（如保留股权、前期外部融资、加速器参与和董事团队信息）构建了一个滚动三年窗口的简单预测模型，有助于平台和创业者提升众筹成功率。
This paper analyzes a large dataset of 2171 equity crowdfunding campaigns launched between the years 2012 and 2017 on two of the world’s largest platforms Crowdcube and Seedrs. Our data shows that the equity crowdfunding market has matured: more recent campaigns tend to be launched by larger and older companies with better access to external financing. Given the market’s dynamics, we use a rolling three-year window to forecast funding success and develop a simple model based on information that is available at the time of the campaign (e.g., retained equity, external fundraising before the campaign, accelerator attendance, and information about the directors’ team). Our proposed forecasting method can be beneficial to both platforms and entrepreneurs for improving outcomes on the equity crowdfunding market.