The Conquest of South American Inflation
用最大似然法估计隐马尔可夫模型，分析拉丁美洲恶性通胀和稳定的决定因素，发现货币化赤字和预期动态的作用，秘鲁案例显示表面改革的影响。
. We infer determinants of Latin American hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden Markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals. Levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations, with a notable exception in Peru where a cosmetic reform of the type emphasized by Marcet and Nicolini (2003) seems to have been at work.