Home Sales Pair Counts: TheOrganicMetric for Trading Volume in Housing Markets
提出房屋销售配对计数作为住房市场交易量的有机指标，发现其增长与价格升值序列不相关，并通过非线性动态GMM面板估计表明，独栋住宅对交易量冲击的长期响应比公寓更显著，支持住房市场是数量出清市场的观点。
Abstract Home sales pair counts are proposed as the organic metric for trading volume in housing markets. Aside from seasonality and temporal aggregation, as opposed to price appreciation, pair count growth is serially uncorrelated. A nonlinear dynamic GMM panel relating home price appreciation to adjusted count growth is estimated for respectively 5 condominium and 10 single‐family home S&P/Case–Shiller indices. While both condominium and single‐family home indices display a positive long‐run response to shocks in trading volume, the latter is economically and statistically more pronounced. Overall, the empirical findings are consistent with the observation that housing markets are primarily quantity clearing markets.