Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
研究发现衡量序列数据中当前结果对过去结果序列依赖性的常用指标存在显著偏差，该偏差在短序列中尤为严重，修正后推翻了关于热手谬误的经典结论。
We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the\nconditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in\nsequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally\ndecreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and\nremains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical\nwork. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy\nliterature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon\ncorrecting for the bias we find that the long-standing conclusions of the\ncanonical study are reversed.\n