Drivers of the great housing boom‐bust: Credit conditions, beliefs, or both?
用直接衡量信贷条件和信念的指标，分析两者在房价波动中的不同作用，发现信贷条件对房价增长的解释力和预测力更强，而信念仅与同期房价相关。
Abstract Two potential driving forces of house price fluctuations are commonly cited: credit conditions and beliefs. We posit some simple empirical calculations using direct measures of credit conditions and beliefs to consider their potentially distinct roles in house price fluctuations at the aggregate level. Changes in credit conditions are positively related to the fraction of riskier nonconforming debt in total mortgage lending, while measures of beliefs are unrelated to this ratio. Credit conditions explain quantitatively large magnitudes of the variation in quarterly house price growth and also predict future house price growth. Beliefs bear some relation to contemporaneous house price growth but have little predictive power. A structural vector autoregression analysis implies that exogenous changes in credit conditions have quantitatively important dynamic causal effects on house price changes.