Demographics, Monetary Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound
构建新凯恩斯生命周期模型，发现人口老龄化显著压低自然利率和潜在产出增长，在现行通胀目标下加剧零下限风险；若央行滞后更新自然利率估计，还会导致持续通缩偏差。
Abstract We develop a New Keynesian life‐cycle model to assess the importance of population aging for monetary policy. The model successfully matches the age profiles of consumption‐savings decisions made by European households. It implies that demographic trends contribute significantly to the decline of the natural rate of interest (NRI) and potential output growth, and exacerbate the risk of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB), given the current inflation targets. Under a realistic assumption that the central bank updates its estimates of the NRI only with some lag, aging may additionally lead to a sizable and persistent deflationary bias, elevating the ZLB risk even further.