Rollover Risk and Tax Avoidance
研究发现，当企业面临较高的债务展期风险时，会通过减少现金税负来保留现金，用于偿还到期债务，从而降低再融资需求，且这种避税行为能降低企业未来失败的概率。
ABSTRACT We investigate the association between rollover risk, measured as long‐term debt maturing in the current year deflated by total assets, and tax avoidance, measured as the cash effective tax rate. Consistent with cash being particularly valuable for firms with high‐rollover risk, we find that firms pay less in cash taxes when the amount of long‐term debt becoming due is significant relative to total assets. This finding contrasts with that of Alexander and Pisa, who scale debt due in the current year by total long‐term debt. We also find that the positive association between rollover risk and tax avoidance strengthens for firms with more severe financial constraints. Firms with high‐rollover risk appear to use tax‐related cash for debt repayment to reduce their refinancing needs. Moreover, rollover risk firms engaging in tax avoidance benefit from a lower probability of future firm failure. Additional tests corroborate our main finding in that the positive relation between rollover risk and tax avoidance is stronger for firms with greater information asymmetry or default risk and weaker for firms with greater financial flexibility. Finally, we find that firms avoid cash taxes preemptively in preparation for long‐term debt maturing beyond 1 year. Our results highlight the interdependence of corporate financial and tax policy decisions.