Childless Aristocrats: Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility
利用英国贵族家谱数据，研究继承制度（限定继承契约）如何降低无子女率，确保贵族王朝延续，并发展理论解释这一现象。
Abstract Using genealogical data of British aristocrats, we show that inheritances can affect childlessness. We study settlements, a contract restricting heirs’ powers and settling bequests for yet-to-be-born generations. Settlements reduced childlessness to the ‘natural’ rate, ensuring aristocratic dynasties’ survival. Our estimation exploits that settlements were signed at the heir’s wedding if the family head lived until this date. Whether the heir was born after a girl provides as-good-as-random assignment into settlements. Next, we develop a theory that reproduces our findings, shows that exponential discounting cannot rationalise inheritance systems restricting heirs and that inheritance systems can emerge endogenously when fertility concerns exist.