Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts
研究美联储绿皮书预测，发现考虑不同变量预测误差的相互作用后，失业率预测几乎对称，产出预测在沃尔克任命前对称，通胀预测在大稳健时期后对称。
Abstract Forecasts are a central component of policymaking; the Federal Reserve's forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook's inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods, for example, before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric, the output forecasts symmetric prior to the Volcker appointment, and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the Great Moderation.