Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation
利用瑞典职业高中女性毕业时遭遇深度经济衰退的准随机变化，研究发现早期劳动力市场恶化虽短暂，却永久改变了家庭结果，尤其低分女性更早结婚生育、配偶质量更低，离婚和单亲率上升，福利依赖持续数十年。
Using quasi-random variation in graduation years of Swedish vocational high-school females at the sudden onset of a deep national recession, we study how deteriorated early labor-market prospects affected economic and family outcomes during the following decades. Labor-market consequences were severe but not permanent. In contrast, family outcomes were permanently altered, in particular for low-GPA women. These women married and had children earlier, and they partnered with lower-performing spouses. Divorce and single-motherhood rates rose, and welfare-claims remained elevated for decades. This suggests that temporary shocks to female labor market prospects can propagate into long-run poverty through endogenous adjustments of marriage-quality thresholds.