Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks
研究了企业层面的不确定性如何周期性波动，并放大名义冲击对实体经济的影响，对理解货币政策传导和商业周期有参考价值。
We develop a framework to study the impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty on aggregate economic outcomes. Agents learn about individual characteristics, which receive infrequent, large, and persistent shocks. In this environment, idiosyncratic uncertainty moves in cycles, fluctuating between periods of high and low uncertainty; with additional fixed adjustment costs, the frequency and size of agents' actions also fluctuate in cycles. We apply our framework to study pricing behavior and the propagation of nominal shocks. We show, analytically and quantitatively, that idiosyncratic uncertainty cycles amplify the real effects of nominal shocks by generating cross-sectional dispersion in firms' adjustment frequency and in learning speed.