Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis
利用2008年底匈牙利货币危机期间家庭外币债务暴露差异，研究债务负担突然增加导致违约率上升和支出崩溃，进而加剧地方衰退，并产生负面溢出效应。
We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary’s late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causes higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into an output multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67. The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currency debt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets.