Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence*
利用意大利企业调查中随机提供通胀信息的设计，发现企业通胀预期上升会促使其提价、增加信贷需求，但减少就业和资本；在利率受下限约束时，需求效应更强，企业提价更多且不再减少就业。
Abstract We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms’ economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for credit, and reduce their employment and capital. However, when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, demand effects are stronger, leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment.