Using referenda to improve targeting and decrease costs of conditional cash transfers
提出用公投式调查问题计算受助者接受有条件现金转移合同的最低要价，以墨西哥生态服务付费项目为例，发现基于此的社会成本低于实际支付，并模拟了联合瞄准和差异化支付方案来提升效果或降低成本。
Cost-effective allocation of conditional cash transfers (CCT) requires identifying recipients with low opportunity costs who might change behavior. This paper develops a low-cost approach for improving program implementation by using a stated preference, referendum-style survey question to calculate willingness to accept (WTA) for CCT contracts. We illustrate this in the context of Mexico's Payments for Ecosystem Services Program, and find that the estimated social cost based on WTA is substantially lower than actual payments. Simulation of three geographic targeting approaches shows that joint selection using deforestation risk and WTA could increase program impact under the same budget. We also simulate modified payment schedules based on predicted WTA and demonstrate that these could reduce program cost.