Elections and Capital Flows
研究了选举对资本流动的影响，发现在新兴和发展中国家，总统选举显著降低选前外商直接投资流入，但对其他资本流动无影响，且这种周期并非由经济危机或政策操纵引起。
Abstract This paper investigates the extent to which elections affect capital flows. I find little evidence of political capital flow cycles in advanced economies. In emerging and developing countries, however, presidential elections significantly lower preelection foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows but have no effect on other types of capital flows. Furthermore, I find evidence that these cycles are not caused by economic crises related to elections or preelection manipulation of policy variables. These results suggest that uncertainty about future government policies, which should have greater impact on more irreversible forms of capital flows like FDI, may be an important factor in generating this cycle.