Rules-based monetary policy and the threat of indeterminacy when trend inflation is low
研究发现，即使趋势通胀率低至2%或3%，新凯恩斯模型中的不确定性仍可能发生；趋势通胀与名义工资刚性和产出趋势增长的相互作用会扩大不确定性区域，而反应产出增长而非产出缺口的政策规则能显著提高确定性。
Indeterminacy in new Keynesian models with Calvo-contracts can occur even at low trend inflation levels of 2 or 3%. The interaction of trend inflation with nominal wage rigidity and trend growth in output causes large distortions in the steady state and expands the indeterminacy region. Consequently, even interest rate rules with strong inflation responses may not be sufficient to ensure determinacy. A policy rule reacting to output growth but not to output gap significantly increases the prospect of determinacy. Although the threat of indeterminacy is less severe under Taylorcontracts, significant departures from the original Taylor principle are required for determinacy.