Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
通过大型群体实验室实验，研究资产泡沫的形成机制，发现泡沫在大型群体中稳健存在，信息传染可通过新闻打破泡沫协调，而趋势外推的协调行为会放大泡沫。
Abstract We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random selection of participants receives news about overvaluation. Our findings are: (i) large asset bubbles are robust in large groups, (ii) information contagion through news affects behaviour and may break the coordination on a bubble, (iii) time varying heterogeneity provides an explanation of bubble formation and crashes, and (iv) bubbles are strongly amplified by coordination on trend-extrapolation.