Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms
利用1988至2016年欧盟成员国的增值税变化数据，发现增值税对贸易流量的影响弹性很小，远小于关税的影响，表明增值税不太可能扭曲贸易。
This paper uses all value-added tax (VAT) changes across EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, even when VAT changes are large. These elasticities are substantially smaller than the elasticities of trade flows with respect to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries, and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlikely to distort trade flows.