Testing for time variation in the natural rate of interest
复制并扩展了Laubach和Williams的模型来估计自然利率，使用贝叶斯模型选择方法检验自然利率是否随时间变化，发现其变化源于潜在产出增长，而其他决定因素不变。
Summary This paper replicates in a wider sense the unobserved components model of Laubach and Williams ( Review of Economics and Statistics , 2003, 85 , 1063–1070) to estimate the natural rate of interest (NRI) and investigates the role of model uncertainty. A stochastic Bayesian model selection procedure is employed to test the hypothesis of time variation in the NRI against a constant NRI. The model selection confirms time variation in the NRI as a result of changes in potential output growth, but other determinants of the NRI are found constant.