Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions
研究发现失业的工资损失主要集中于转向低技能职业的工人,且经济衰退期间这种职业降级的成本和发生率更高。作者构建模型解释衰退期招聘更挑剔,导致部分失业者主动寻找低技能工作。
This paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-skill occupations, and that the cost and incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. I propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, leading some unemployed workers to optimally search for reemployment in lower-skill jobs. The model accounts for existing estimates of the size and cyclicality of the present value cost of job loss, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession.