Biomarkers as precursors of disability
利用英国纵向调查数据，研究发现护士采集和血液检测的生物标志物能显著提升对2-4年后残疾风险的预测能力，且优于仅用自评健康指标。
Some social surveys now collect physical measurements and markers derived from biological samples, in addition to self-reported health assessments. This information is expensive to collect; its value in medical epidemiology has been clearly established, but its potential contribution to social science research is less certain. We focused on disability, which results from biological processes but is defined in terms of its implications for social functioning and wellbeing. Using data from waves 2 and 3 of the UK Understanding Society panel survey as our baseline, we estimated predictive models for disability 2-4 years ahead, using a wide range of biomarkers in addition to self-assessed health (SAH) and other socio-economic covariates. We found a quantitatively and statistically significant predictive role for a large set of nurse-collected and blood-based biomarkers, over and above the strong predictive power of self-assessed health. We also applied a latent variable model accounting for the longitudinal nature of observed disability outcomes and measurement error in in SAH and biomarkers. Although SAH performed well as a summary measure, it has shortcomings as a leading indicator of disability, since we found it to be biased in the sense of over- or under-sensitivity to certain biological pathways.