In Search of Behavioral Opportunities From Misattributions of Luck
研究人们常把运气误认为技能的系统性错误，指出知情战略家可利用这种错误在战略要素市场中获利，并讨论了保护行为机会的学习和相互依赖障碍。
How performance is perceived and attributed has important implications for strategizing. Much research in the cognitive and social sciences suggests that people tend to mistake luck for skill in evaluations and ignore how future performances regress to the mean. We argue that these systematic mistakes can be translated into an alternative source of profit: informed strategists can take advantage of others’ misattributions of luck by exploiting the false expectations and mispricing in strategic factor markets. We also discuss the learning and interdependency barriers that protect, and thus predict the attractiveness of, a behavioral opportunity and suggest approaches to help overcome these behavioral barriers.