Determinants of Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis of the Transition Literature
对中东欧和前苏联国家转型初期的经济衰退与后续复苏进行元分析，发现恶性通胀和地区冲突是危机主因，而社会经济结构变化和转型政策影响较弱，社会主义遗产越重则衰退越深。
The economies of Central East European and former Soviet states have experienced catastrophic downturns in the first years of transition to the market economy and moderate recovery in the aftermath of the crisis. Previous studies, however, do not clarify the reasons why the transition economies followed a J-shaped path of macroeconomic decline and growth without exception. Aiming to illustrate the mechanism, we conducted a meta-analysis of the transition literature that empirically examined the determinants of macroeconomic growth in transition economies. The results of meta-synthesis of collected estimates indicate that hyperinflation and regional conflicts were strong factors causing the economic crisis during the initial period of transition, while the changes in socio-economic structure and the transformation policies had weaker effects on economic growth. We also found that the economies with heavier socialist legacies were forced to face deeper economic decline, if other conditions are equal.