Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks
通过匹配54个国家的大型自然灾害数据与个体宏观预测者数据，发现预测者在发布或修正预测的频率上存在持续异质性，大型意外冲击显著降低了信息刚性，并影响不同关注度预测者的意见分歧。
By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures the two channels through which natural disaster shocks affect expectation formation: attention effect—the visibly large shocks induce immediate and synchronized updating of information for inattentive agents—and uncertainty effect—attentive agents might increase their acquisition of private information to compensate for the higher uncertainty after shocks.