Judgment Error in Lottery Play
研究发现彩票市场可能出现“热手现象”，即过去中奖号码在后续抽奖中更受青睐，尽管事件独立；同时存在“赌徒谬误”，两种偏差在不同彩票游戏中并存，且奖金数量影响行为。
We demonstrate that lottery markets can exhibit the "hot-hand" phenomenon, in which past \nwinning numbers tend to receive a greater share of the bets in future draws, even though past \nand future events are independent. This finding is surprising, as works by Clotfelter and Cook \n(1993) and Terrell (1994) have previously documented the presence of an opposite effect|the \n\\gambler's fallacy"|in the U.S. lottery market. The current literature also suggests that the \ngambler's fallacy prevails when random numbers are generated by mechanical devices, such as in \nlottery games (e.g., Ayton and Fisher (2004), Burns and Corpus (2004), Caruso et al. (2010)). \nWe use two sets of naturally occurring data to show that both the gambler's fallacy and the \nhot-hand fallacy can exist in different types of lottery games. We then run online experimental \nstudies that mimic lottery games with one, two, or three winning numbers. Our experimental \nresults show that the number of winning prizes impacts behavior. In particular, whereas a \nsingle-prize game leads to a strong presence of the