Slum Upgrading and Long-Run Urban Development: Evidence from Indonesia
研究了印度尼西亚雅加达1969-84年KIP贫民窟改造项目的长期影响，发现改造区域如今土地价值更低、建筑更矮、非正规性更强，且负面效应集中在市中心5公里内。
Abstract Developing countries face massive urbanization and slum upgrading is a popular policy to improve shelter for many. Yet, preserving slums at the expense of formal developments can raise concerns of misallocation of land. We estimate causal, long-term impacts of the 1969–84 KIP programme, which provided basic upgrades to 5 million residents covering 25% of land in Jakarta, Indonesia. We assemble high-resolution data on programme boundaries and 2015 outcomes and address programme selection bias through localized comparisons. On average, KIP areas today have lower land values, shorter buildings, and are more informal, per a photographs-based slum index. The negative effects are concentrated within 5 km of the CBD. We develop a spatial equilibrium model to characterize the welfare implications of KIP. Counterfactuals suggest that 79% of the welfare effects stem from removing KIP in the centre and highlight how to mitigate losses to displaced residents.