Does global inflation help forecast inflation in industrialized countries?
检验Ciccarelli和Mojon提出的全球通胀因子模型能否改进工业化国家通胀预测，发现加入全球通胀因子能提升长期预测准确性。
Summary Ciccarelli and Mojon (CM; Review of Economics and Statistics , 2010, 92 (3), 524–535) propose an inflation forecasting model incorporating a global inflation factor and show that it consistently beats several standard forecasting benchmarks. We show that CM's global inflation model does not improve upon the Atkeson and Ohanian (AO; Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review , 2001, 25 (1), 2–11) naive benchmark. However, we find that augmenting the AO model with a global inflation factor improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons, supporting CM's claim about the usefulness of global inflation.