Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: Loan applications, rates, and real effects
利用乌干达监管信贷登记处的微观数据，研究发现货币政策紧缩会减少银行信贷供给，提高贷款申请拒绝率并收紧贷款规模和利率，尤其对杠杆率和主权债务敞口较高的银行影响更大，进而波及通胀、经济活动甚至社会动荡。
Recent studies of monetary policy in developing countries document a weak bank lending channel based on aggregate data. In this paper, we bring new evidence using Uganda's supervisory credit register, with microdata on loan applications, volumes and rates, coupled with unanticipated variation in monetary policy. We show that a monetary contraction reduces bank credit supply—increasing loan application rejections and tightening loan volume and rates—especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure. There are associated spillovers on inflation and economic activity—including construction permits and trade—and even social unrest.