The long-run information effect of central bank communication
研究发现，央行沟通中关于经济不确定性的消息对长期利率影响更大，且主要通过期限溢价渠道起作用，这解释了为何长期利率会对央行沟通做出反应。
Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England's Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of highdimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty.