To Harvest or Not to Harvest? An Analysis of Cutting Behavior on Federal Timber Sales Contracts
分析公共资源销售合同结构如何导致违约和收入不稳定，基于美国林务局木材销售合同数据，发现缩短合同期限和严格延期要求能提高采伐率，但价格调整条款效果不显著。
Economists have studied the environmental consequences and competitiveness of alternative sales techniques for publicly-owned na tural resources. Little attention has been paid, however, to fluctuat ions in revenues resulting from the option nature of public resourc e sales. This paper analyzes how the contract structure of public res ource sales leads to defaults and thereby revenue instability. Data on U.S. Forest Service timber sales contracts (which were modified i n the early 1980s in response to default problems) suggest that reduc ed contract lengths and more stringent requirements for extensions in crease harvest rates, but that price adjustment clauses are unlikely to have similar effects. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.